The S and P Report

Weekly S&P Report(67)

Sean Lusk — 2012-07-07T14:54:00Z

Weekly S and P Report Comments
By Sean Lusk, PFGBEST
1-877-294-7757
slusk@PFGBEST.com
July 7, 2012

E Mini S&P settles 1351.75 down 4.75
For the week ended (7/2-7/6)

Stock futures ended the week lower following yet another dismal jobs report for the month of June. The Dow and S&P posted weekly losses, while the NASDAQ managed to squeeze out a gain for the fifth consecutive week. For the week, the Dow lost 0.84 percent, the S&P lost 0.55 percent, while the NASDAQ posted a gain of just 0.08 percent. The CBOE volatility index, considered the best gauge of fear in the market, ended near 17. Non- farm payrolls rose by only 80K, according to the Labor department, missing expectations of a gain of 90K. The unemployment rate remained steady at 8.2 percent. With yet another month of weak employment growth, the second quarter ranks as the weakest three month period in the last two years. This has fueled speculation that the Fed will step in with additional monetary easing . Recent economic reports have been dismal with the ISM manufacturing index earlier this week indicating a contraction for the first time in nearly three years. The Euro slumped against the Dollar, to trade at a two year low on Friday. This move lower comes a day after the ECB cut its rates by a quarter of a point and slashed deposit rates to zero. Also, the Bank of England moved forward with more quantitative easing, while the People’s Bank of China moved forward with surprise rate cuts. Still, central bank efforts did little to raise equities. IMF President Christine Lagarde voiced concern over a slowdown in developed and big emerging economies echoing concerns voiced by ECB President Mario Draghi who said the euro zone economy would recover only gradually.
Heading into next week, the second quarter earnings season kicks off with just a few reports, but they will be important early looks at whether the fallout from Europe and the slower global growth is hurting corporate America. Alcoa kicks off earnings season after the bell Monday. After Friday’s disappointing U.S. jobs payrolls, jobs related data, such as Thursday’s weekly jobless claims, will be closely monitored, as will the minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting Wednesday. But more important perhaps is a batch of fresh Chinese data, starting off Monday with inflation and export data, and winding down Friday with GDP, retail sales and industrial output. China, the world’s second largest economy surprised markets with a second round of interest rate cuts in the past week, raising speculation that the data will be weak. My swing numbers for next week come in as follows for the mini S&P. Support is down first at 1337.50 and with a close under, 1323.50 the next level down. Resistance is up at 1370.25 and with a close over 1389.00 the next level to the upside.

Daily Swing #s ESU (7/9)
R2-1374.50
R1-1363.25
Pivot-1352.75
S1-1341.50
S2-1331.00

Weekly Swing #s ESU2 (7/9-7/13)
R2-1389.00
R1-1370.25
Pivot-1356.25
S1-1337.50
S2-1323.50

Daily Swing #s YMU2 (7/9)
R2-12950
R1-12838
Pivot-12739
S1-12627
S2-12528

Weekly Swing #s YMM2 (7/9-7/13)
R2-13038
R1-12882
Pivot-12761
S1-12605
S2-12138

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Daily S&P Report(186)

Sean Lusk — 2012-07-03T14:54:00Z

Daily S&P Report Comments

by Sean Lusk, PFGBEST

1-877-294-7757

slusk@PFGBEST.com
Tuesday, July 03, 2012 at 11:56 AM

E Mini S&P settles 1368.00 up 10.50

Stock futures trended higher throughout Tuesday morning’s trade as better than expected data on factory orders, along with a boost in risk-sentiment on hopes for more stimulus efforts from the Fed led all three benchmark indexes higher. Today’s light volume rally in the S&P pushed the index up to its highest level since May 4th. On the economic front, factory orders rose 0.7 percent in May, according to the Commerce Department. Economists had expected a gain of just 0.2 percent. European shares finished higher amid expectations that the ECB will cut interest rates to a record low on Thursday. Also investor attention will turn to Friday’s much anticipated jobs report. Pre-report guesstimates have the non-farm payroll number for a gain of 90K jobs for June. I will have more on the jobs number on Thursday’s report. Besides the ECB rate announcement Thursday we will have jobless claims and a non-manufacturing ISM number released in the morning. Also we have private forecasters ADP and Challenger giving their pre report estimates for private sector hiring for June. Please call or email me at anytime with questions or comments.

Daily Swing #s ESU2 (7/5)
R2-1378.50
R1-1373.25
Pivot-1364.25
S1-1359.00
S2-1350.00

Daily Swing #s YMU2 (7/5)
R2-12958
R1-12912
Pivot-12831
S1-12785
S2-12704

Daily S&P Report(185)

Sean Lusk — 2012-07-02T14:54:00Z

Daily S&P Report Comments

By Sean Lusk, PFGBEST

1-877-294-7757

slusk@PFGBEST.com
Monday, July 02, 2012 at 3:32 PM

E Mini S&P settles 1357.50up 1.00

S&P futures rebounded from session lows on Monday following weak economic data on manufacturing, as traders are eyeing more stimulus measures from the Fed after data showed the manufacturing sector contracted for the first time in almost three years last month. The Institute for Supply Management’s June manufacturing index showed the factory sector suffered its first contraction since 2009. News from overseas wasn’t much better as manufacturing data from China worsened as well, with export levels posting their biggest fall since December. Euro zone manufacturing shrank in June and according to business surveys, showed that jobs were cut at the fastest pace in two and a half years. Despite all the bad news the Mini S&P traded back up to the unchanged level around midday and then rallied a few points in the last hour of trading to go positive. Many investors are now correlating bad economic data at home to increasing the chance of further Fed asset purchases commonly known as QE3 later this year. However this Friday’s jobs numbers could reveal more of that sentiment, as the Fed has stated that zero growth in the employment picture could promote further asset purchases. Going forward to tomorrow, we have a reading on factory orders in the morning and then an abbreviated close at 12:15 (central) due to the 4th of July Holiday on Wednesday. Please call or email me at anytime with questions or comments.

Daily Swing #s ESU2 (7/3)
R2-1369.75
R1-1363.50
Pivot-1356.50
S1-1350.75
S2-1343.75

Daily Swing #s YMU2 (7/3)
R2-12909
R1-12842
Pivot-12783
S1-12716
S2-12657

Weekly S&P Report(66)

Sean Lusk — 2012-06-30T14:54:00Z

Daily S&P Report Comments

by Sean Lusk, PFGBEST

1-877-294-7757

slusk@PFGBEST.com
Saturday, June 30, 2012

E Mini S&P settles 1356.50 up 29.75
For the week ended (6/25-6/29)

Stock futures posted a major rally on Friday to close out a weak second quarter performance on a high note as investors cheered an agreement by European leaders to stabilize the region’s banks. The rally today was the best one day performance for the S&P 500 since December 20th and trimmed its quarterly loss to 3.3 percent. The second quarter decline marked the first negative quarterly performance in the last three as uncertainty over the future of the Euro zone particularly the fiscal solvency of namely Greece and Spain roiled global financial markets. Euro zone leaders on Friday at a summit in Brussels agreed that member nations would be able to recapitalize banks directly without increasing a country’s budget deficit. Struggling EU member nations will now have the availability to use euro area rescue funds to stabilize bond markets. European shares jumped to finish at a seven week high following the deal announcement. In addition to the EU deal, there was also short covering by many investors as it was month and quarter end, with many portfolios evening up before the closing bell on Friday which aided the rally. Italian and Spanish borrowing costs fell, though they remained not far from recent highs. Investors’ expectations for any meaningful action during the two day EU summit had dissipated, giving markets to room to bounce on the unexpected EU deal. The mini Dow Jones futures contract gained 282 points in trading Friday while the NASDAQ100 posted an 82 point gain. For the week the Dow posted a gain of 1.9 percent, the S&P rose 2 percent, and the NASDAQ posted a 1.5 percent gain. For the 2nd quarter, the Dow fell 2.5 percent, then S&P lost 3.3 percent, and the NASDAQ lost 5.1 percent.
The EU summit news overshadowed a batch of mixed economic data in the U.S. throughout the week as consumer spending fell in May along with auto purchases dropping. A gauge on consumer confidence hit a six month low in June coinciding with worries over the future of the economy. While a gauge on manufacturing picked up on Friday in the Midwest, factories in that region saw a modest decline in new orders.
Heading into next week, usually a vacation week due to the 4th of July holiday, there is a series of market events that will certainly have the market’s attention and could set market direction for the remainder of July. First and most important is the monthly jobs report released Friday. Early estimates are for very tepid job growth. But it is being closely monitored by the Fed since the lack of any sustainable job growth is considered a major trigger for further Fed easing. I will have pre- report guesstimates for the non-farm number later in the week. There is also a slew of other economic data such as ISM manufacturing data, along with auto and chain store sales, which could reveal how strong consumer spending is. The European Central Bank holds a much- anticipated rates meeting Thursday, with the consensus is that the central bank will cut its main refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent and may trim the deposit rate, which is the rate it pays banks for parking money with it, by 25 basis points to 0 percent. My swing numbers for this holiday shortened week come in as follows for the mini S&P. Support is down first at 1319.50 and with a close under, 1282.50 the next level to the downside. Resistance is up at 1376.50 and with a close above here 1396.50 the next level to the upside. Please call or email me with any questions or comments.

Daily Swing #s ESU2 (7/2)
R2-1387.50
R1-1372.00
Pivot-1344.00
S1-1328.50
S2-1300.50

Weekly Swing #s ESU2 (7/2-7/6)
R2-1396.50
R1-1376.50
Pivot-1339.50
S1-1319.50
S2-1282.50

Daily Swing #s YMU2 (7/2)
R2-13062
R1-12935
Pivot-12707
S1-12580
S2-12352

Weekly Swing #s YMU (7/2-7/6)
R2-13130
R1-12968
Pivot-12672
S1-12510
S2-12214

Daily S&P Report(184)

Sean Lusk — 2012-06-28T14:54:00Z

Daily S&P Report Comments

by Sean Lusk, PFGBEST

1-877-294-7757

slusk@PFGBEST.com
Thursday, June 28, 2012 at 5:10 PM

E Mini S&P settles 1322.50 down 3.00

Stock futures fell today as all three indexes staged a late day rally to finish slightly lower for the session. Stock futures plunged in the morning after the Supreme Court upheld the Obama administration’s healthcare overhaul law, while the Euro hit a three month low versus the Dollar. However heavy early losses were stymied as investors covered their short positions into the close following reports that Germany’s Angela Merkel cancelled the EU summit’s press conference tonight, offering some hope the EU leaders are working to form a solution to tackle the region’s debt crisis. On the economic front, GDP increased at a 1.9 percent annual rate, which was unchanged from expectations. Weekly jobless claims fell 6K to a seasonally adjusted 386K, however the previous week was revised higher by 5K. Tomorrow’s releases include a Chicago PMI number and a reading on personal income. Traders should also keep in mind that tomorrow is end of month and end of the 2nd quarter as well. Make no mistake though all eyes will be on the EU summit and headlines from that meeting that could make it a very choppy session in the both the stock indices and in the Euro. Please call me at anytime with questions or comments.

Daily Swing #s ESU2 (6/29)
R2-1340.00
R1-1331.25
Pivot-1319.00
S1-1310.25
S2-1298.00

Daily Swing #s YMU2 (6/29)
R2-12684
R1-12604
Pivot-12490
S1-12410
S2-12296

Daily S&P Report(183)

Sean Lusk — 2012-06-27T14:54:00Z

Daily S&P Report Comments

by Sean Lusk, PFGBEST

1-877-294-7757

slusk@PFGBEST.com
Wednesday, June 27, 2012

E Mini S&P settles 1325.50 up 10.00

Stock futures finished higher on Wednesday buoyed by a pair of U.S. economic reports that beat expectations. Investors though continue to remain skeptical over the outcome of the two day EU summit in Brussels later this week. Trading volume was anemic at best as many investors sit on the sidelines awaiting the EU fallout. Few expect a far reaching solution to the EU’s debt problems especially since German Chancellor Merkel reiterated Germany’s opposition to the common Eurobonds, an idea backed by France, Italy, and Germany. On the economic front, durable goods orders jumped 1.1 percent in May, which beat the expectation of a 0.4 percent gain. Pending home sales climbed 5.9 percent to 101.1, hitting a two year high in May, according to the National Association of Realtors. After a rough start to the week Monday, with all three benchmark indexes losing one percent, the e mini S&P and mini Dow sit just below unchanged for the week as of today’s settlement. This tells me that many investors prefer to be flat heading into the EU summit announcement possibly on Friday. Tomorrow we have a weekly reading on jobless claims along with a reading on GDP and a 7 year note auction. Please call or email me when you have questions or comments.

Daily Swing #s ESU2 (6/28)
R2-1338.50
R1-1332.00
Pivot-1322.00
S1-1315.50
S2-1305.50

Daily Swing #s YMU2 (6/28)
R2-12649
R1-12601
Pivot-12529
S1-12481
S2-12409

Daily S&P Report(182)

Sean Lusk — 2012-06-26T14:54:00Z

Daily S&P Report Comments

by Sean Lusk, PFGBEST

1-877-294-7757

slusk@PFGBEST.com
Tuesday, June 26, 2012

E Mini S&P settles 1315.50 up 9.00

Stock futures recovered some of Monday’s losses of more than one percent as upbeat data on home prices lifted all three benchmark indexes, with the NASDAQ posting the biggest percentage gain for Tuesday’s session. An air of caution remained for investors as Spanish borrowing costs jumped and U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in five months. Spanish bond yields rose after demand at a bill sale fell despite significantly higher yields as hopes faded that the EU summit later this week would produce game-changing crisis measures. Spain formally asked on Monday for funds to bail out its banks in a move some see as a prelude for a full- blown bailout of the euro zone’s fourth largest economy. We will see if today’s bounce has legs tomorrow as the only U.S. releases are a reading on Durable goods and pending home sales. Investors are eagerly awaiting the EU summit later this week. Member nations that are in the most trouble financially, including Spain and Italy are the ones most adamant about instituting joint liability in the form of Euro bonds or some other financial stimulus. Along with France they are pursuing Germany to open up its financial coffers today in exchange for a loss of sovereignty tomorrow. To nobody’s surprise Merkel and the Bundesbank, the idea of joint liability is something that can be introduce at the end of an integration process, not at the start. Please call or email me with questions or comments.

Daily Swing #s ESU2 (6/27)
R2-1327.00
R1-1321.25
Pivot-1312.25
S1-1306.50
S2-1297.50

Daily Swing #s YMU2 (6/27)
R2-12584
R1-12534
Pivot-12457
S1-12407
S2-12330

Weekly S&P Report(65)

Sean Lusk — 2012-06-22T14:54:00Z

Weekly S and P Report Comments

by Sean Lusk, PFGBEST

1-877-294-7757

slusk@PFGBEST.com
Friday, June 22, 2012 at 4:48 PM

E Mini S&P settles 1326.75 down 11.50
For the week ended (6/18-6/22)

Stock futures ended a volatile week with a solid rally on Friday that still left the major indexes lower for the week. Financials unexpectedly led the rally Friday, while tech stocks boosted the tech heavy NASDAQ, which helped the market recover from a 251 point loss in the Dow on Thursday, which investors largely attributed to no new stimulus measures from the Federal Reserve. Thursday was the markets second drop in excess of 250 points this month and the second worst loss for 2012. The mini Dow lost 142 points for the week despite posting a 66 point gain on Friday. This week’s action left some market participants concerned that stocks were likely to see-saw around until there is more clarity on the European debt crisis and if there will be any improvement from economic data at home. Traders are already eyeing the June jobs report, even though its release date isn’t for another two weeks. Jobless Claims released yesterday showed another gain, albeit a small one, but the moving average on claims has reached a new high for the year. The Federal Reserve in a policy statement on Wednesday reiterated that job growth remains anemic and if it doesn’t improve, would warrant more stimulus efforts from the Fed. Therefore jobless claims numbers along with the monthly jobs data will carry much more weight with investors. Traders had worried also about bank stocks heading into Friday, after Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the credit ratings of 15 of the world’s largest banks late on Thursday. But those fears were tempered on Friday, when the financial sector led the market higher. Analysts had been looking for some of the major banks to be downgraded by three notches, but all but one of the fifteen had been rated lower by only two notches. Friday’s bounce was felt across the commodity sector has metals, grains and energies all rallied as well.
Heading into next week, the news will again be on the euro zone. Europe’s 27 heads of state will meet Thursday and Friday. At the summit, Angela Merkel believes she can restore market confidence by driving euro zone leaders to sacrifice overall control of their budgets to Brussels. After that, Merkel noted that there could be a joint issuance of debt or euro bonds. However French President Hollande was at odds and said it should not take up to 10 years to introduce euro bonds. In short ,the danger is that Germany is deadlocked against France, Spain, and Italy with euro bonds the central issue. Without some agreement in next week’s summit, it will be difficult for Merkel and Germany to sanction more immediate measures to deal with the contagion threatening Spain and Italy. Heavy week of economic data in the U.S. as well next week coinciding with the end of the second quarter on Friday. New Home Sales is out Monday, A gauge on consumer confidence and durable goods on Tuesday and Wednesday, a final reading on GDP and jobless claims on Thursday. My swing numbers next week in the mini S&P comes in as follows. Support is down first at 1310.50, and with a close under, 1294.25 the next level down. Resistance is up at 1350.00 and with a close over 1373.25 the next level to the upside. Please call or email me with any questions or comments.

Daily Swing #s ESU2 (6/25)
R2-1339.00
R1-1332.75
Pivot-1325.50
S1-1319.25
S2-1312.00

Weekly Swing #s ESU2 (6/25-6/29)
R2-1373.25
R1-1350.00
Pivot-1333.75
S1-1310.50
S2-1294.25

Daily Swing #s YMU2-(6/25)
R2-12666
R1-12616
Pivot-12556
S1-12506
S2-12446

Weekly Swing #s YMU2-(6/25-6/29)
R2-12966
R1-12766
Pivot-12629
S1-12429
S2-12292

Daily S&P Report(181)

Sean Lusk — 2012-06-21T14:54:00Z

Daily S&P Report Comments

by Sean Lusk, PFGBEST

1-877-294-7757

slusk@PFGBEST.com
Thursday, June 21, 2012

E Mini S&P settles 1318.25 down 32.50

S&P and Dow futures got slammed on Thursday pressured from a variety of sources including weak economic data out of China and Europe along with anticipated downgrades of banks around the world. All three benchmark indexes lost nearly two percent each, led by the tech heavy NASDAQ that posted the biggest percentage loss for the day. Weak U.S. economic data followed yesterday’s disappointing non- announcement from the Federal Reserve on more stimulus measures from the Fed that soured investor sentiment. In fact all three benchmark indexes held steady overnight until U.S. data released this morning along with a bearish call on the market by Goldman Sachs. In economic news weekly jobless claims fell slightly but the four week average rose to a 2012 high, while the Purchase Managers index report from Markit said manufacturing grew at its slowest pace in eleven months as hiring slumped. Also the June reading on the Philly Fed index was much weaker than expected, it fell eleven points from the month before to negative16.6.The index which measures manufacturing activity in the Mid Atlantic region has fallen by 29 points in the past three months. Goldman Sachs came out with a release to clients coming out with a downside objective in the mini S&P to 1285.00 which added fuel to the fire for the selloff today.
Stock futures closed lower in Europe as well today as once again concerns mounted over soaring borrowing costs in Spain along with other peripheral nations. The market was awaiting a likely report from Moody’s, which is expected to downgrade 15 global investment banks. All seven of the major indexes in the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ, and Russell closed below their 50 day moving average. Please call or email at anytime with questions or comments.

Daily Swing #s ESU2 (6/22)
R2-1365.50
R1-1342.00
Pivot-1329.75
S1-1306.25
S2-1294.00

Daily Swing #s YMU2 (6/22)
R2-12894
R1-12698
Pivot-12595
S1-12399
S2-12296

Daily S&P Report(180)

Sean Lusk — 2012-06-20T14:54:00Z

Daily S&P Report Comments

by Sean Lusk, PFGBEST

1-877-294-7757

slusk@PFGBEST.com
Wednesday, June 20, 2012 at 3:27 PM

E Mini S&P settles 1350.75 up .25

S&P and Dow futures climbed back in the last 30 minutes of trading to settle slightly higher for the session to extend a five day rally in the mini S&P. The announcements from the FOMC were the highlights of the session in which the Federal Reserve delivered on another round of monetary stimulus, which was an extension of the Operation Twist program through the remainder of 2012. Through the expansion of this program, the Fed will continue to sell short term securities and buy long term ones in an effort to keep borrowing costs down. The Fed in its statement today slashed its estimates for U.S. economic growth this year to a range of 1.9 percent to 2.4 percent, down from an April projection of 2.4 percent to 2.9 percent. In addition, they expect the job market to make slower progress than they did just a few months back, with the unemployment rate now seen hovering above 8 percent for the rest of the year. There was some disappointment from investors that additional stimulus along with the Twist program wasn’t announced today, as the S&P and Dow made session lows upon hearing the policy announcement this morning. However during Bernanke’s press conference later in the day said, “If we do not see improvement in the labor market, the Fed will do more”. He also said in regards to future stimulus programs, that the FOMC will review all labor market indicators and get a sense if there is sustainable improvement being achieved; if not then more stimulus would be required. Prior to the Fed announcement, European markets finished broadly higher, with the Stoxx Europe 600 ending 0.6 percent higher after Greece’s conservative New Democracy party secured a consensus for a coalition government with the Socialist Pasok party and the democratic left party. New democracy leader Antonis Samaras was also sworn in as prime minister, removing a recent source of market uncertainty. Going forward into tomorrow we have jobless claims, PMI manufacturing, existing home sales, and the Philly Fed index to be released. Please call or email me at anytime with questions or comments.

Daily Swing #s ESU2 (6/21)
R2-1365.00
R1-1357.75
Pivot-1348.25
S1-1341.00
S2-1331.50

Daily Swing #s YMU2 (6/21)
R2-12884
R1-12823
Pivot-12747
S1-12686
S2-12610